Europe’s East-West divide is back, this time over climate policy

There’s growing pressure to set a ‘net zero’ emissions goal by 2050, but not all EU countries are on board.

Climate policy is splitting the EU.

Buffeted by climate protests and alarmed at increasingly grim climate science, many Western European countries want to dramatically ramp up their climate efforts by mid-century. Central and Eastern European members are more worried about the economic impact of such steps. Germany is caught in the middle.

A group of Westerners staked out their position ahead of Thursday’s informal leaders’ summit in Sibiu, Romania. Eight countries — Belgium, Denmark, France, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Portugal, Spain and Sweden — called on the bloc to cut greenhouse gas emissions to net zero “by 2050 at the latest,” according to a joint paper seen by POLITICO. That means the EU would absorb as much greenhouse gases as it emits.

Climate change is “a subject of increased concern … for European citizens as shown by the recent mobilization of young people” and others across Europe, the countries wrote. “EU leaders must act now to address these concerns.”

None of the signatories are from Central or Eastern Europe; all eight are run by liberal or socialist parties. Italy, ruled by a populist-nationalist coalition, didn’t sign. Neither did Germany, where the country’s coalition government of Chancellor Angela Merkel’s conservatives and the Social Democrats is riven over the issue.

“We are heading towards climate breakdown … Some governments are starting to take this threat seriously. But the German, Italian and Polish governments still have their heads firmly in the sand,” said Sebastian Mang, from Greenpeace EU.

German exceptionalism

A French official told POLITICO that Germany had been “informed and associated” with the eight-country initiative. But, “Germany at this stage did not want to support this approach … for reasons of internal discussions and the formulation of an internal position.” The official acknowledged that cutting emissions to net zero by mid-century is “not yet an objective that is publicly officially defended by German authorities.”

There’s hope, the French official said, that Germany will eventually back the goal. “I think there is a reflection under way in Berlin but that hasn’t borne fruits on the environmental priority.”

In November, the European Commission set out a long-term emissions strategy that would see the Continent cut emissions to net zero by 2050. That’s seen as crucial in reaching the more ambitious goal of the 2015 Paris Agreement, which aims to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees.

In March, an effort to get EU leaders to back the target fell short. Rather than committing to a 2050 timeline, the summit conclusions said the bloc should submit “an ambitious long-term strategy by 2020 striving for climate neutrality in line with the Paris Agreement.”

Germany and Central European countries opposed a binding time frame, according to a diplomat at the summit. They worried that tough emission reduction efforts could spark a political backlash and undermine the bloc’s economic competitiveness.

Moving ahead

Another EU summit in June is meant to continue discussions on the matter, but many countries aren’t waiting for the EU to move.

More ambitious countries like the Netherlands, Sweden, Finland and Spain have — to different degrees — already taken steps to enact a net emissions goal into national law. The French government last week put forward legislation aimed at setting climate and energy objectives into law, including making the country “carbon neutral” by 2050.

The U.K. won’t be in Sibiu because of Brexit, but last week the Committee on Climate Change, the government’s official advisory body on the issue, set out a detailed plan of how to go climate neutral by 2050.

A lot of the climate statements being issued ahead of the Romanian summit are for longer-term positioning. Sibiu is meant to discuss the bloc’s future priorities, not to debate and adopt concrete policy proposals. That’s something that’s expected to take place during formal European Councils later in the year.

“I think they’re using the fact that no decision is going to be taken, so they’re using the opportunity to be bragging about the climate,” said an EU diplomat. “It’s easy in these circumstances to pretend you want something if you know it’s not going to happen. It helps you look good.”

The diplomat added that technical debates about the bloc’s long-term climate plans don’t suggest “we are very close to coming to an agreement or having a very deep understanding of what are the implications of the long-term emissions strategy.”

Rym Momtaz contributed reporting from Paris.