Why Barnier is Britain’s best friend in Brussels

The Frenchman’s bigger ambition is the Commission presidency in 2 years — and he can’t get it without a success in the Brexit talks.

Britain’s favorite Brussels punching bag may be its best shot at a Brexit deal.

As withdrawal talks took a tense turn in recent days, Michel Barnier, the EU’s dapper French negotiator, has been called silly, arrogant and inflexible in the U.K., even a “smackhead begging for his next hit of our money” by one pro-Leave group.

Among EU insiders, however, the vilification of Barnier by British officials and media is just the latest example of what they view as a clueless approach by the U.K, and a failure to accurately read the political landscape across the Channel.

A two-time European commissioner who served in multiple ministerial posts in the French government and made an unsuccessful bid for Commission president in 2014, Barnier is widely believed to harbor a burning ambition for the EU’s top post.

To have virtually any chance of replacing Jean-Claude Juncker when his term ends in 2019, supporters of Barnier said, he must successfully deliver a withdrawal agreement. That gives Barnier personal incentive to seal a deal with London, they said, while many of his potential rivals stand to gain more from tough talk and a willingness to push the U.K. off the cliff.

“His dream has always been to be president of the Commission, and that dream was broken in 2014,” said Alain Lamassoure, a veteran French MEP and longtime colleague and acquaintance of Barnier’s.

“He doesn’t have prime ministerial experience to be Council president, but if he succeeds in the Brexit negotiations, he can make his dream come true,” added Lamassoure, who is part of the same conservative European People’s Party (EPP) political family as Barnier. “The calendar coincides perfectly. He will have finished in two years. And if he has done these negotiations brilliantly, he will be a candidate.”

To be sure, Brussels is a political fish bowl, full of fast swimmers and loose lips, and the speculation about Barnier’s motivations — beyond the customary desire to succeed in his current mission — may be of even less significance to the Brexit talks than the constant speculation about U.K. Prime Minister Theresa May’s grip on the Conservative Party.

Nonetheless, with Juncker insisting he will step down when his term ends in two years, Europe’s capital is abuzz with various scenarios that would catapult Barnier into the presidential suite of the Berlaymont — perhaps with his deputy negotiator, Sabine Weyand, as cabinet chief, in an embodiment of the renewed Franco-German power nexus.

Others speculate that a more likely cabinet chief would be Olivier Guersent, currently the Commission’s director general for financial stability, financial services and capital markets union, who was Barnier’s chief of staff when he was a commissioner from 2010 to 2014. Barnier’s interest in the presidency, however, is generally regarded by colleagues and friends as an open secret.

That puts the Brexit negotiator’s ambitions on a par with his U.K. counterpart David Davis: The Brexit secretary is the favorite among Conservatives to succeed May as Tory leader if she were forced out, according to opinion polls.

Brand recognition

In 2014, Juncker and Barnier were rivals for the EPP nomination, with Juncker, a former 19-year prime minister of Luxembourg, winning that contest by a vote among party delegates of 382 to 245.

But 62-year-old Juncker and 66-year-old Barnier are political soulmates — committed euro-integrationists, long-time colleagues and mutual admirers. Early in his term, Juncker appointed Barnier as a special adviser on defense and security policy, and it was Juncker who personally tapped Barnier as the EU’s chief Brexit negotiator, just a month after the U.K. voted to leave the bloc in June 2016.

Provided the negotiations don’t implode, Barnier would be well-positioned to reach for his dream.

The Brexit job has raised Barnier’s profile higher than perhaps any EU official who has not served in a presidential capacity, and his name-recognition among the general public is undoubtedly stronger than many current EU heads of state and government.

In preparation for the negotiations, and in seeking to sustain unity among the EU27, Barnier has visited all of the EU capitals. And, apparently unprecedented for an EU negotiator, he has a standing invitation to attend European Council summits to update leaders directly on his progress.

He is also in nearly constant consultation with the European Parliament, which technically still formally elects the Commission president based on a nomination from the Council. (In practice, EU leaders have agreed since 2014 to select the nominee, or Spitzenkandidat, of the political party group that wins a plurality in the European parliamentary elections.)

‘Premature’

From London’s perspective, Barnier’s ambition may not help much.

While it gives him incentive to achieve a Brexit deal, it also creates an imperative for him to deliver an agreement viewed as favorable to the EU27, not Britain. So while he may be less inclined than others in Brussels to see the U.K. expelled from the bloc without a safety net, he is still constrained by the Council’s negotiating directives — a fact that has drawn complaints from Davis and others demanding more flexibility from the EU side.

A U.K. government official said Barnier was “an often reasonable guy who had found himself in an unreasonable situation.”

Asked about Barnier’s future, an EU source close to him said: “Mr. Barnier is fully engaged in the Brexit negotiations as the European Commission’s chief negotiator and, as he has said himself before, he is conducting these negotiations in a calm and constructive spirit. His aim is to reach a deal with the United Kingdom.”

The source stressed that the parameters of the talks were set by the negotiating directives put forward by the Commission and formally adopted by the 27 leaders in the European Council, with input from the Parliament, which must approve any final withdrawal agreement with the U.K.

“As the European Commission’s chief negotiator, Michel Barnier strictly follows the mandate that the heads of state or government have defined unanimously, and he fully takes into account the European Parliament’s resolution,” the source said.

In a statement, Margaritis Schinas, the Commission’s chief spokesperson, dismissed any talk about Barnier’s future as “gossip.”

“President Juncker appointed M. Barnier to this important assignment for well-known reasons (see here),” Schinas said. “For the rest, we have lots of work ahead and no time for gossip.”

Another senior Commission official, speaking on condition of anonymity, said it was too soon to speculate. “We are not there yet,” this official said. “The question of the next European Commission president is far, very far. Any casting would be very premature.”

Premature or not, party groups are already looking ahead to 2019 and how they will organize the process of choosing their Spitzenkandidat. And there are numerous potential obstacles for Barnier, beyond a disastrous outcome in the Brexit talks.

Perhaps first and foremost is the likelihood that he will face a challenge within the EPP, currently Europe’s most influential political family, including potentially from some popular officials who have experience as prime minister or president, like Jyrki Katainen, the former prime minister of Finland and current European commissioner for jobs, growth and competitiveness.

Click Here: West Coast Eagles Guernsey

One factor that could work in Barnier’s favor is that French President Emmanuel Macron is said to covet one of the top EU presidencies for France, though it is tough to predict the broader machinations that could drive the outcome in 2019. Macron, a former Socialist turned independent, has not said if his new party, La République En Marche, will run in the European elections, and, if so, if he will ally with one of the existing political families.

And while Macron shares Barnier’s pro-EU philosophy and outlook, his leverage in negotiations over EU leadership positions will depend on numerous other factors, including the objectives of other leaders like German Chancellor Angela Merkel, who ultimately must agree on how to fill top jobs at the Commission, Council, Parliament and European Central Bank.

Still, in and around Brussels’ European Quarter, the view is that if Barnier manages to pull off a Brexit deal that reflects EU priorities and maintains the unity of the 27, he will have a solid platform for a campaign.

“I think his ambition is recent,” one former EU official said. “It’s not a childhood dream. It wasn’t a plan. His conviction in European values is absolutely authentic.”

Quentin Ariès contributed to this article.